A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
